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 Заголовок сообщения: Прогнозирование - В.С. Муравьева
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Moscow Bauman State Technical University named after

Prognosing at the industrial enterprises.

Postgraduate student IBM2: Muravyeva V.S.

Moscow 2005

The basic functions of management were formulated by one of the founders of scientific management: «To rule means to prognose and to plan, to organize, to lead the team, to coordinate and to supervise».
Prognosing – is a glance into the future, finding possible ways of development, consequences of different decisions. The results of prognosing are necessary for planning. Planning is working out the sequence of actions, which gives an opportunity to reach the desired results. These terms are closely connected to each other in the work of a manager.
As practice shows, to prognose is rather difficult. Sometimes prognosis is based on well-studied regularities and is carried out for certain. However monosynaptic well-grounded prognosis usually can’t be given in the social-economic field. The reasons are - uncertainties in different aspects of an industrial and economic situation. There are following uncertainties:
- insufficient knowledge of the nature;
- insufficient knowledge of the natural phenomena;
- participants’ activity in the economic life (first of all the activity the partners of this enterprise), in particular, partners are connected with their business activity, a financial situation, fulfilling obligations;
- social and administrative factors in the definite regions, where the enterprise has business interests;
- the future actions of suppliers (due to market preferences change);
- competitive environment;
- the future economic situation in the country, including the absence of credible information about future preferences of consumers;
- uncertainties, connected with price fluctuation (dynamics of inflation), norms of interest, currency rate and other macroeconomic indexes;
- instability of the legislation and current economic policy (to put it another way, it’s connected with the activity of the leaders of the country, ministries and departments) which deals with a political situation, activity of parties, trade unions, ecological and other organizations in the scale of the country;
- deficiency of production. In case of mass production, as a rule, it’s impossible to provide the emission of products without defects.
- uncertainties referring to projected products or technological processes;
- emergency dumps in the rivers of technological liquids, fumes emissions into the atmosphere;
- social uncertainties, connected with different conflicts: between offices (sections, corporations), between managers of the top echelon, between trade unions and administration (as regards on salary, labour conditions ets). In modern conditions of economic independence of industrial enterprises prognosing has become rather urgent for many of them. While drawing up a plan of production not only possibilities of the enterprise are important but also the demand for this production. Now that, enterprises have to follow the “market laws”, managers want to know the perspectives of development of their enterprise, to glance into the future in order to estimate possible ways of development to foresee consequences of these or other decisions.
The efficient activity of industrial enterprises under modern conditions depends on a great degree on prognosing, it depends upon how credibly managers can foresee further and close perspective of their development.
Prognosing is the separate type of modeling as the basis of cognitive activity.
The role of prognosing in enterprise managing is obvious. First of all it’s necessary to prognose:
- the behaviour of the state;
- the behaviour of consumers;
- the behaviour of suppliers;
- the behaviour of competitors;
- scientific-technical progress.
The following prognosed indexes, that determine a successful existence of an industrial enterprise in a long-term perspective are;
- the amount of profit;
- the volume of realization;
- the liquidity;
- the labor productivity and so on.
The fact that when factors have the uncertainties make the process of an industrial enterprise managing more complicated. It’s connected with appearance of new goals and tasks, establishment of new economic ties, the forming of market mechanisms of management. Provision of the methodological and instrumental basis for support of the main of management functions is based on controlling. It’s the new concept of management. We can say that controlling is one of the instruments of a manager which provides success to the enterprise.
A controller and an econometrist who cooperates with him, need different economic and administrative information and also suitable tools of its analysis. Consequently informational support of controlling is necessary. It’s impossible to make efficient administrative decisions without modern computerized instruments of analysis and management, based on the up-to-date econometrical and economic-mathematical methods and models. The controlling specialists pay great attention to problems of creating, developing and using computer systems of support for making decisions. High statistic technologies and econometrics are integral parts of any modern system of support for making economic and administrative decisions.
Econometrics is an important component of the controllers instrumentery, realized in the computer system of support for making decisions.
There are different methods of economic prognosing. Such mathematical disciplines as: theory of probabilities, mathematical statistics, research of operations, economic theory, economic statistics, management, sociology, politology and other social-economic sciences are their theoretical basis. The choice of the concrete method is one of the most important tasks of the prognosing.
There are two basic groups among the methods of prognosing: statistical and expert ones. Statistical methods of prognosing include:
- Prognosing of timely rows;
- Regressive analysis;
- Adaptive methods of prognosing;
- Methods of statistical tests;
- Methods of selective multiplication.
To make decision, about economic, social, ecological and other projects, it is necessary to address to methods of expert estimations in case of complexity the prognosing of object, insufficient completeness of the information and impossibility of a full mathematical formalization of a process. Methods of expert estimations – are methods of organization of experts work and processing of the experts opinions.
I have examined some concrete procedures of the expert estimates:
- The Delfy method;
- The method of scenarios;
- The “brain storm”;
Combined methods which suggest simultaneous application of different prognosing methods occupy a special place in the classification. Application of combined methods is especially important for complex social and economic systems where various combinations of prognosing methods can be used. I can consider the econometrical modeling as a variation of combined methods, in which economic-mathematical modeling is combined with statistic methods and estimation of parameters and hypothesis testing.


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